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Breaking down the Highway 7 rivalry

If healthy, the Guelph Storm's older, deeper, better defensive group should be the difference in the series
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Saxon on the Storm

Rivalries, by definition, guarantee an interesting playoff series.

History, geography and the fact they play each other eight times a year virtually assures an emotional first round series between the Guelph Storm and Kitchener Rangers, which kicks off tonight at the Sleeman Centre.

Guelph has home ice advantage, which could prove crucial between two teams that split the regular season series.

But the team doctor, not home ice advantage, could likely be the deciding factor in this series.

The Storm had three top nine forwards and two top-four defencemen out of the lineup when the regular season ended. While not all of them are expected to be back on the bench for Game 1, some of them should be and it should be the healthiest the Storm has been in months.

Here’s a breakdown of the series, which I’ve already picked the Storm should win in five.

GOALTENDING: Guelph’s Anthony Popovich (assuming he’s starting) and Kitchener’s Luke Richardson are near mirror images of one another: experienced goaltenders with similar numbers who are capable of playing extremely well, but are often prone to inconsistency.

The difference could end up being that the Storm has a suddenly red-hot Nico Daws waiting in the wings should Popovich fail.

The fact that it might come down to the backup isn’t particularly reassuring for the Storm, but knowing you don’t have to sink or swim with one goalie can only be a positive.

Advantage: Slight edge to Guelph.

DEFENCE: Again, it all comes down to depth.

When you have a top six like Guelph has that can put a 19 year old and an overage defenceman as its third pairing, it’s pretty difficult for the Rangers to compare.

It creates huge match-up difficulties in the Kitchener end, when a skilled scoring line is going to be up against their third pairing, no matter who has last change. You can't shut down three lines.

And the Rangers top pairing iare going to be some very tired boys come Sunday night.

Guelph’s defence is older, bigger and better.

Advantage: Guelph in a landslide.

FORWARDS: KItchener has the hottest forward in the league in player of the month Greg Meireles and five players who hit the 30-goal mark, led by Jonathan Yantsis's 50. But after that only one Ranger managed to hit double digits.

Guelph had 13 score at least 10 goals and as a team they outscored the Rangers by 57 goals this season.

Getting Keegan Stevenson, Cedric Ralph, Pavel Gogolev and, hopefully, Cam Hillis back in the lineup will create three experienced lines that can all score.

Advantage: Guelph, based on its depth.

SPECIAL TEAMS: The good news for Kitchener is that it had the best power play in the league this season. The bad news is that it’s penalty kill was ranked 15th.

Guelph was ranked third on the power play and eighth on the penalty kill.

Guelph can go scoreless on the power play and still put five or six on the scoreboard, whereas Kitchener needs its power play to perform to be able to keep pace with Guelph’s offence.

Staying out of the penalty box will be a key for the Storm and both Guelph (15th) and Kitchener (17th) did a pretty good job of that in the regular season.

Advantage: Even.


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Tony Saxon

About the Author: Tony Saxon

Tony Saxon has had a rich and varied 30 year career as a journalist, an award winning correspondent, columnist, reporter, feature writer and photographer.
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