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'I don’t see any meaningful relief coming to the pump,' says petroleum analyst

The average monthly price of gasoline in Guelph has increased 0.629 cents per litre from the pandemic lows seen in March 2020
20211014 Gas DC1
A pump at a Guelph gas station shows on Thursday morning how many litres of gas $100 can get.

October is on track to be the 12th consecutive month the average retail prices for regular gasoline will increase in Guelph.

It will also set the ceiling for the highest monthly average gas price in the last six years, according to data spanning back to 2016 from Natural Resources Canada.

In Guelph, the retail price of gas in November of 2020 was 99 cents per litre, the start of prices climbing without relief.

The data from Natural Resources Canada shows the average price of regular gasoline in October is currently $1.419, up from the monthly average of $1.382 in September.

GasBuddy, a gas price tracker that aggregates the prices of gas in real-time from users, shows Thursday’s gas prices were concentrated at $1.449, however, the highest price was reported at an Esso Station at $1.459.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said the global price for crude oil continues to climb with demand as a global energy crunch continues to develop and this means their wont be any meaningful relief coming to the pump any time soon.

“In the last couple of week’s we have started to see a global energy crunch develop, specifically a coal shortage in China where China is now instituting rolling blackouts to conserve the coal they have and a natural gas shortage in Europe,” said De Haan.

Gas prices are rising across Canada with Natural Resources Canada’s data showing the monthly average at the pumps has increased from $1.128 in January to $1.451 in October.

“The energy crunch is likely to push oil up as some utilities switch from natural gas and coal to using oil, and so, that further separates supply and demand, said De Haan. “Demand continues to rise for crude oil globally especially as we recover from the pandemic, but supply remains a laggard.”

The current price at the pumps far exceeds the pre-pandemic levels in Guelph of $1.113 per litre seen in February 2020.

The pandemic low, reported in March 2020 at $0.79 per litre, is 0.629 cents cheaper compared to today’s average.

From March to July of 2020, the price of gas in Guelph trended upwards, with a reversal in the price providing relief to consumers from August to November of 2020 as the monthly average gas price lowered each month.

“We certainly are not going to get down to what we paid last year, said De Haan. “Ontario’s average was about a dollar a litre last year, today we are at $1.409, so don’t expect any meaningful relief.”

De Hann said any meaningful relief that does come won’t be anything significant and might be closer to five cents per litre.


Daniel Caudle

About the Author: Daniel Caudle

Daniel Caudle is a journalist who covers Guelph and area
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