Beth and Ryan Waller manage an extensive database of information that allow them to make informed, educated decisions on the local market for their clients. It also helps predict trends and provide insights as they happen.
The pandemic has changed the local real estate market in many ways. These trends include out of town buyers moving to Guelph, Guelphites moving to other parts of Ontario, Canada and the world.
Prices have skyrocketed locally, resulting in a changing buyer dynamic and needs for different types of housing. Different locations have increased in popularity due to proximity to amenities and highways.
So it’s that time of the year where Beth and Ryan look into the crystal ball and try to get an idea of where the Guelph real estate market will go in 2022. They see three key areas to focus on for 2022:
A few things happened in 2021 that were surprising. Mainly, the incredible number of homes that sold over $1 million dollars, from 3% in 2020 to 12% in 2021. Three neighbourhoods now have a median sales price above $1 million (Exhibition Park, Kortright Hills and Village by the Arboretum, respectively).
The averages in these neighbourhoods were key contributors to the average price increase citywide. As a result, at the end of November the median price sales were up an incredible 30% higher than last year in Guelph real estate.
For 2022, Beth and Ryan predict that the market will increase another 13% in 2022. This is mainly due to one issue: supply. Until Guelph gets enough homes on the market to meet the demands of buyers, prices will rise.
As of December 15, there were only 49 single family residential homes (all home types combined) on the market in Guelph. 49! Based on November sales trends, that means all of Guelph housing could be wiped out in a week!
Seasonally, Beth and Ryan predict a similar year to 2021. Their prediction is:
- January to March will still see a very aggressive market (+25%)
- April- August will have modest gains with a slower July and August (+10%)
- September to December will see slight declines vs 2021 (-1%)
This weighted average should put Guelph in the +13% range for full year 2022.
Condos will gain more market share
When prices get higher and supply is low, buyers begin to review their wants and needs. They try to determine what other options may be available to them. This could include location, price and style of home.
One of the trends Beth and Ryan have been noticing is that condos are increasing in market share versus other types of homes. Specifically, low rise and high rise condo buildings.
From September through December specifically, in some weeks condos made up over 40% of sales despite only making up 25-30% of listings. This calculation means that condos are growing in market share. These Guelph REALTORS® anticipate that this trend will continue through 2022, with condos making up between 35- 40% of sales.
Beth and Ryan continue to see many first time buyers from the GTA moving into Guelph, particularly from Brampton, Mississauga and Milton. Millennials, as well as buyers that feel they have been priced out of detached and semi detached homes, have been significant buyers of condo developments.
Because of the wide range of condo prices (from $400,000 in west Guelph to over $1 million in downtown Guelph), they’re also noticing many downsizers move to a condo. In many cases, these are lifestyle changes: from larger family homes to smaller condos. This means less time spent on home maintenance and more time for things like travel and leisure.
East end leads growth
Last year, Beth and Ryan predicted that east and south Guelph semis and townhomes would be hot properties in 2021- and they were right.
For 2022, they predict the area known as Grange Road is poised to outpace city growth due to a wide variety of housing styles and proximity to the GTA.
In particular, Beth and Ryan note that semis and towns east of Gordon St will remain very hot. The team also sees detached homes in the Grange Rd area outpacing the rest of the city due to increased commercial development. This area was already popular before this, so it’s going to be even more attractive afterwards.
Beth and Ryan Waller’s Real Estate Team issue a monthly newsletter to clients that contains information on a wide variety of topics, including monthly data reports. If you wish to receive this email (issued only once monthly), please email [email protected]. More info at https://bethandryan.ca.