With the first quarter of sales now behind us, it’s now becoming overwhelmingly evident that 2021 has started as a unique year in the Guelph real estate market.
More houses have sold in Guelph in the first three months than the past five years, bringing the average price to almost double what it was in 2015. This pattern is unusual for sure- generally with increased supply, you’d find that prices would decline because buyers have more choice.
However, a continued surge in buyers from the GTA have contributed to a giant wall of buyers- despite the fact there are more listings, there are still more buyers. This has contributed to the average Guelph home selling at 10% over the original asking price this year. We caution that the original listing price may not have indicative of the actual market value from the start.
What neighbourhoods in Guelph are these buyers moving to?
Six months ago divided Guelph into three different regions: Downtown, North of Wellington St and South of Wellington St. Let’s take a look at some updated data to get an idea of what’s happening:
The collective grouping of downtown Guelph neighbourhoods identified as Exhibition Park, St Georges Park, The Ward, General Hospital and Downtown proper continue to appreciate in line with the market. The average price of all homes sold here is $708,000.
Leading the group is General Hospital at a +30% average price increase and the Ward at +25% with a relatively flat number of listings available. Both of these neighbourhoods have an abundance of post war bungalows and smaller century homes.
The condo market in the downtown core is growing at the same average price pace as the non-condo market. However, there are significantly more units for sale as well.
If you’re looking for the greatest value in the downtown market, consider the east portion of St Georges Park to Victoria Rd, the downtown areas surrounding GCVI and the Metalworks condo development.
North of Wellington St +34%
Growth in North neighbourhoods in Guelph has exploded as almost every sub area here has outpaced the city, with a 2021 average price of all homes at $730,000.
This area includes: West Guelph areas (Onward Willow/ West Acres/ Sugarbush), Victoria North, Riverside Park and the East Guelph neighbourhood of Grange Road.
Grange Road, the area east Victoria Road is realizing a massive surge. This area has historically had the most transactions per year and is on pace to set a new high for 2021. As well, Grange Road has experienced multiple homes selling over the $1 million mark for the first time.
Onward Willow, which includes the sub-area of the Junction is also increasing at +34%. These smaller post-war bungalows and century homes have become increasingly popular as lower priced options in the north parts of Guelph.
Willow West/ West Acres and Victoria North also had above average gains. Although growing at 9% in average price, Riverside Park lags behind, but this is also because there are few homes here to buy.
Condos unit sales have declined in north Guelph, while units sales of non-condos have increased by 36%
South of Wellington St. +24%
Always popular with commuters and still experiencing significant new development, South Guelph has a rapidly changing landscape. Most noteworthy is that this area continues to lead the charge of $1 million homes, with 44 year to date versus 12 over the same period in 2020. This grouping consists of Old University/ Dovercliffe, Kortright East and West (south of the University along Gordon St to Arkell), Kortright Hills, Pineridge/ Westminster Woods and Clairfields.
South Guelph has also realized a 62% gain in condo unit sales year to date and is outpacing non-condos in average price growth.
The Dovercliffe neighbourhood, located on the west side of the Hanlon Expressway between College Ave and Stone Rd still provides a lot of value in the $400-$600K price point.
Source: GDAR Jan 2020-March 2021, single family residential homes excluding areas with 10 unit sales or less.