It’s no secret that most Ontario real estate markets have hit new highs this year, including Guelph despite a global pandemic. In late September, the Financial Post published an article identifying Guelph as one of the 5 fastest-growing markets in Canada. If you add in the full September sales, the average price of a home in Guelph is +14% this year.
It’s worth noting that with all the press on Guelph real estate you’d anticipate a huge year of home sales. However, the overall number of sales is consistent with 2019. The big change is the price buyers are paying is significantly higher than last year due to limited inventory.
A surge in buyers from the GTA who are escaping big city life, historically low-interest rates and lifestyle changes as a result of COVID-19 have all played a major role in the real estate landscape in Guelph.
However, despite citywide growth, not all areas grow at the same pace and so this month we’ll break Guelph neighbourhoods into three geographic areas to give a better idea of performance in the City: Downtown, North of Wellington St and South of Wellington St.
The collective grouping of downtown Guelph neighbourhoods identified as Exhibition Park, St Georges Park, The Ward, General Hospital and Downtown proper have underperformed the market year to date. However, if you’re looking for a home in downtown Guelph, you’ve also likely noticed that there has been a lot less inventory available - 25% less, to be exact.
Leading the group is St Georges Park with a 16% increase with a relatively flat number of listings available. Buyers here have pushed the prices up not only in the original area of century homes but even more so in the post-war bungalow portion between Stevenson and Victoria Rd.
Exhibition Park drags on the group with a 3% increase in average price with 25% fewer homes listed. The main contributor is that there is a shift in the home prices selling: 2020 has realized a significant drop in homes available over $750K.
North of Wellington St +12%
This grouping is made up of West Guelph areas (Onward Willow/ West Acres/ Sugarbush), Victoria North, Riverside Park and the East Guelph neighbourhood of Grange Rd.
Leading the pack is Victoria North, the pocket near the intersection of Victoria/ Woodlawn with an average price increase of 18%. For the first time, this area has experienced multiple homes selling over the $1 million mark, which has driven up the average. However, like other areas, buyers are lining up for the smaller, modest post-war bungalows
The laggard of the group is the Willow West/ West Acres area, but still an impressive +9%. This area has realized an increase in condo sales at lower prices, with a significant decline in available freehold homes (-14%)
South of Wellington St. +16%
It may come as no surprise to many, the area south of downtown Guelph is outperforming the rest. Always popular with commuters and still experiencing significant new development, South Guelph already had a few of the highest price neighbourhoods.
Although most neighbourhoods in South Guelph are performing near the City average, the areas of Kortright East and West (south of the University along Gordon St to Arkell) are boasting an incredible 22% average price gain this year.
Part of this gain comes from new, higher-end development in Kortright East and part comes from an overall increase in existing high-end home sales, with an incredible 100% increase in homes sold over $750,000 this year for those two areas.
Kortright Hills, the area by the YMCA that has traditionally been Guelph’s highest average priced neighbourhood, has been dethroned by Kortright East this year at just over $786,000.
Overall, this is the only grouping that has sold more homes than last year, led by increases in Kortright West and Kortright Hills, the area by the YMCA.
Beth and Ryan Waller are Guelph REALTORS® with Home Group Realty and supporters of Guelph small business. You can reach them at 519-546-3390 or visit https://bethandryan.ca.
Source: 2019- 2020 GDAR data total $ sold year over year change. Neighbourhoods categories as per GDAR identified boundaries. Village by the Arboretum has been excluded due to small sample size.