As population growth and new subdivisions continue to rise, the Upper Grand District School Board (UGDS) notes in a new report that several schools are currently over capacity.
The Long-Term Accommodation Plan (LTAP) final report was received by the finance and facilities committee earlier this week and will be brought to the board in April. The planning document has current and projected enrolment trends to help prioritize capital projects and address accommodation pressures.
UGDSB serves close to 36,000 students in 65 elementary schools and 11 secondary schools across Guelph, County of Wellington, and County of Dufferin.
By 2030 UGDSB’s projected enrolment could increase by about 5,000 students. That projected enrolment means 31 elementary schools and six secondary schools could be over capacity by 2030.
Currently, 11 elementary schools and three secondary schools are over capacity.
Content in the LTAP has changed since its draft report in April 2023. Provincial policies around housing changed which led to changes in official plans for municipalities. These changes were considered in the final LTAP report, said Ruchika Angrish, manager of planning for UGDSB.
“And that triggered change in enrolment projections, for obvious reasons. Because of it, there's more, you know, housing development land that were brought in, that changes the number of units, and hence the projection. So the projections were updated,” she said.
Planning review areas that may require new schools based on enrolment projections are elementary schools for Orangeville, Erin and south Guelph.
Orangeville has a new school site identified in one of the new planned subdivisions.
In Erin a new elementary school is designated for the new Solmar subdivision. A new elementary school in Hillsburgh has also been identified. Erin has three elementary schools and current enrolment for all its schools is 817. By 2030 the projected enrolment is 1,740.
“In the interim, there is surplus capacity available in Erin schools,” said in the report. Portables might also be necessary in the future.
Current enrolment at Erin District High School is 505 but is expected to double by 2030.
Portables are one of the short-term solutions the LTAP suggests to ease accommodation pressure. Boundary reviews, enrolment caps and grade changes are others. These short-term tools can be used “until we figure out a more long-
term plan other than portables,” said Angrish.
At any point if UGDSB staff think a school over capacity can’t accommodate more portables or other solutions, reports will be brought to trustees. “We will not disrupt the existing community,” however new registrations for a school will be carefully considered to not pierce the classroom cap,” said Angrish, as an example.
Two large new residential areas are coming to Guelph, Clair Maltby and the Guelph Innovation District.
Five out of 11 elementary schools in south Guelph are currently over capacity. By 2030, seven schools are expected to be over capacity. With current accommodation pressures, portables are in use.
The 2030 enrolment projections for Priory Park Public School and Jean Little Public School doesn’t include the full development of new residential areas so this could mean enrolment projections could continue to increase past 2030.
Even with the provincial and municipal policy changes to housing, until there are development applications we can only know so much about residential development, said Angrish. When proposals come in with proposed amounts of units, it is then reflected in the enrolment projection.
“That's exactly what is going to put a lot of pressure on our school system,” said Angrish.
From her understanding the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and the Ministry of Education are collaborating.
“The community is understanding. The community knows that these changes that are happening everywhere,” said Angrish.
When the UGDSB brings in boundary reviews, for example, parents tend to show they are involved and they care “which really helps with the process on our end as well,” she said.
Rickson Ridge Public School in south Guelph is over capacity and its current enrolment is 598. In fall 2023 the board submitted a capital priorities request to the Ministry of Education for a six classroom addition. Portables will continue to be used until additional capacity is approved by the ministry, said in the report.
As for Guelph UGDSB secondary schools, all except College Heights Secondary School are over capacity. College Heights is set to become an alternative education centre and will phase out Grade 9 and 10.
The new south Guelph secondary school will have a capacity of 900 and the target opening date is the 2026/2027 school year.
Secondary school enrolment overall is projected to increase by 1,000 students by 2030.
Boundary changes will be required for existing secondary school boundaries when the new school opens. This “will help to resolve some of this enrolment pressure,” said in the report. In the meantime portables are used.
New elementary schools are part of future capital priority requests to the Ministry of Education and the priorities are:
Dufferin County capital priorities:
- New Mansfield/Mulmur elementary school
- New Orangeville elementary school
- New Grand Valley elementary school
- New Shelburne elementary school
Wellington County capital priorities:
- New Hillsburgh elementary school
- New Erin elementary school
- New Centre Wellington elementary school
Guelph capital priorities:
- New elementary school in south Guelph Clair Maltby secondary plan
Once the LTAP is approved by the board there will be an annual review of it. There will be updated data to include any provincial and municipal policy changes.
